The next frontier of predictive modeling is not about predicting a possible outcome for each constituent (such as identifying constituents who are most likely to lapse, renew, make a planned gift, etc.). The next frontier of predictive modeling is known as persuasion modeling.
The objective is to predict the type of contact method your organization should apply to each constituent in the data base to maximize that constituent’s chance of a successful outcome (such as renewing, or not lapsing). I just happened to find a link to the keynote address video from the 2013 Predictive Analytics World conference where the speaker, Eric Siegel, described the method. It is a truly informative presentation and completely easy to understand.
Here’s an article from HP’s Chris Surdak on why persuasion modeling is the next big thing. He writes it from a for-profit point of view, but the same principles apply to our sector too. We not only want to know which communication channel will likely have the greatest positive effect on each constituent, but we also want to know whether we should be using that communication channel at all! Reaching out could possibly have an unintended negative effect, so we only want to employ more expensive levels of communication treatment (like call centers) to those constituents likely to be persuaded to give again.
Definitely take a look at the video, it is illuminating and will make you feel like you’ve got the inside scoop on analytics best practices.
There are a few items on the APRA-GH calendar of events, so just in case one of them is appealing to you, check it out!
One of the most frequently viewed posts on the old APRA-GH blog was this Southern Illinois University case study produced by Grenzebach Glier & Associates.
SIU contracted with GG+A to assemble an interactive tool to query their donor data base using parameters like wealth, giving level and giving designation (college) to produce results across a map.
This implementation is amazing. It clearly required a commitment to a development methodology to achieve the results shown. But it is truly impressive. Click on the map image above to access the link to the webinar. Fast forward to about 40 minutes to see the demonstration.
About a month ago I joined a webinar produced by Pursuant on the topic of donor retention. As I listened, I was happy to hear that donor segmentation is the key to implementing communication strategies to promote retention (skip to about 38 minutes in the webinar replay).
My favorite part of the webinar came at 44 minutes. Seriously, open the webinar here and fast forward to 44 minutes. The most awesome tip I’ve heard in a while: celebrate your donors’ impact on your organization by acknowledging the anniversary of their first gift date. How awesome is that?! I’d be willing to bet that a lot of longevity donors have lost track of the number of years they’ve been giving and I’d also be willing to bet that donors with an irregular giving history might feel more committed if they saw their giving through a longer lens.
Seems to me like there’s only an upside to a strategy like this. You can access the webinar by clicking on the image above.